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Facebook Worth the Risk Under $25

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Facebook (FB) got a bad wrap after its notorious debut. The company hit a high of $45 a share shortly after going public and it was all down hill from there -- but that was May last year. Today, the stock is trading around $25.74 and analysts give the company a mean one-year target estimate of $33.44, according to Yahoo! Finance.

Now that would be a fair return -- almost 30% -- if it makes the mark.

While there are plenty of reasons to doubt whether Facebook has what it takes to recover some of the ground it has lost, I think the company is worth the investment, if you can buy in under its 200-day moving average of $25.20 a share, that is, and are willing to hold the position at least one year.

Critics may point out that the stock is down considerably from its IPO last summer, but I say, since when is an investment determined by its old share price? I just want to know if I can make money off of it now. And, that is exactly the case with Facebook.

Moreover, while so many nay-sayers have been focusing on Facebook's post-IPO fall from grace, the company has been making some big changes.

First and foremost, Facebook has some major opportunities, simply because of the volume of data it collects on its billion plus users. Google (GOOG) may be able to make estimates about your demographics, based on what you search for. (See what Google says your demographics are here.) However, it isn't always accurate.

Mine says I am a white male over 50 who speaks Japanese, but I am a woman in my 30's who speaks high school French and is learning Spanish -- more than a little off. Facebook, however, knows how old I am, knows I am a woman and knows which languages I speak. It remembers my birthday.

And, what I don't specifically tell Facebook, it wouldn't be that difficult to infer.

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