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Deutsche Bank Should Cut Its Dividend

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- European banking conglomerate Deutsche Bank (DB - Get Report) should cut its dividend after revising weak 2012 earnings downward to reflect rising legal costs at its U.S. mortgage lending operation and unspecified regulatory investigations.

While Europe's largest bank by assets is sharply cutting 2012 profits and lowering its reported capital ratios, Deutsche Bank isn't prepared to cut the its EUR0.75 annual dividend, which equates to a payout far in excess of last year's annual profit.

On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank said it would have to set aside an additional 600 million euros to account for legal costs and regulatory investigations, in a move that will more than halve the bank's annual profit to about 300 million euros.

The earnings revision also means Deutsche Bank's Basel III Tier 1 capital ratio will fall from 8.0% to 7.8%, as the lender continues to cut risky assets and prepare for more stringent capital rules. The bank reaffirmed expectations of a Basel III Tier 1 ratio of 8.5% by March 31, and it said the earnings revision will reduce legal reserves by 500 million euros to 1.5 billion euros.

Although Deutsche Bank could have minimized the capital hit of its earnings revision by cutting the dividend, the bank remains committed to a payout that would be unlikely to pass the Federal Reserve's muster in the United States.

Deutsche Bank's rising legal costs and signs that regulatory probes may soon hit the bank's pocket book -- after large recent settlements at competitors Barclays (BCS), HSBC (HBC) and UBS (UBS - Get Report) -- come at a time when the bank's finances remain a large concern for analysts and ratings agencies.

The financial revision also comes as turmoil surrounding the bailout of Cyprus raises the prospect of a return to crisis within the European financial system, after the European Central Bank helped to stabilize balance sheets across the region with nearly 1 trillion euro's in bond guarantees in late 2011.

Deutsche Bank remains committed to a cash dividend that exceeds payout ratios from better capitalized European competitors and most U.S. counterparts.

Were European banks to return to a state of uncertainty, as they did at certain points in 2012, Deutsche Bank's dividend yield could fall in-line with the best capitalized U.S. players such as Wells Fargo, even after the Federal Reserve gave a clean bill of health to most large lenders and allowed bigger payouts, earlier in March.

Unfortunately, while Deutsche Bank is a bellwether for the European banking system, it also is reflective of seemingly risky payout policies across the region, as EU bank balance sheets remain among the biggest concerns for global investors.

Other conglomerates, including Banco Santander (SAN), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) and Intesa Sanpaolo are hanging on to large payouts.

Meanwhile, struggling investment banks such as Societe Generale (SCGLY), UBS (UBS - Get Report), Credit Suisse (CS) and Barclays (BCS) are in the process of either reinstating high-yielding payouts or forecasting big dividend increases to shareholders.

For lenders such as Deutsche Bank, dividend policies appear to come before the painful work of raising capital to solidify balance sheets, as U.S. banks have done.

It's no surprise, then, that investors continue to question the stability of the eurozone financial system, as zeitgeist in the U.S. shifts to post-crisis strategy.
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