Step Away From the Foreign Currency ETFs
Note(s): The price of UUP hasn't been above a 200-day since August of 2012, shortly after the European Central Bank's president described that its body would do whatever was necessary to protect the euro. The price of UUP has not crossed significantly above the 200-day from a place of weakness since November of 2011, shortly before European powers determined whether or not to continue providing Greece with bailout money.
The strength of the dollar is seen in a variety of different ways, like examining "commodity currencies" such as the Canadian dollar and/or the Australian dollar. The CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) has weakened dramatically since February, while the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) has depreciated rapidly since the beginning of 2013. Perhaps ironically, their weakness is partly attributable to their dependency on exports, and the currency weakness would theoretically benefit the exporting of Canada and Australia.
The euro has been declining steadily, due in large part to Italian government uncertainty as well as the euro-zone's deepening recession. Aggressive short-sellers who listened to me on "shorting" the euro via ProShares Ultra Short Euro (EUO) about a month ago have unrealized gains. Even emerging market currencies have been eroding. Until recently, you might have done well to own the Brazilian "real" or even a basket of emergers via WisdomTree Emerging Market Currency (CEW). It hasn't been in the cards lately. In sum, the Dow has closed above an all-time high. The S&P 500 may not be far behind. On the flip side, U.S. dollar strength may be an indication that risk-taking isn't quite as vibrant as the media want you to believe. Even if you are "long" U.S. and world equities, make certain that you have a plan for reducing risk should the tables turn. Follow @ETFexpert This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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