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Major Equity Averages Testing Risky Levels

The major equity averages are even more overbought technically with 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings at: 93.16 for the Dow Industrials, up from 91.42 last week; 92.59 for the S&P 500, up from 91.30 last week; 88.95 on NASDAQ, up from 87.39 last week; 93.94 on Dow Transports, down slightly from 94.50 last week; and, 92.49 on the Russell 2000, up from 91.60 last week. Readings above 80.00 are overbought.

The Dow Industrial Average ended Thursday just above its semiannual risky level, now a pivot at 14,323 with another all time closing high at 14,329.49. The next risky levels to focus on are my semiannual risky level at 1566.9 on the S&P 500, and the semiannual risky level at 965.51 on the Russell 2000. I project that there will be additional weekly risky levels next week to limit this MOJO run for stocks.

Here is my Weekly Review of the Key Levels for the U.S. Capital Markets:

Yield on the 10-Year Treasury note (2.01%): My annual and semiannual value levels are 2.476% and 3.063% with my annual pivot at 1.981% and new monthly risky level at 1.796%. Note how my annual pivot remains a magnet. Beware that the 30-Year bond yield is approaching its 2013 high at 3.25%, which is the yield that would likely cause more than 65% of all stocks to be overvalued for another valuation warning.

Comex Gold ($1577.5): The December 2011 low is $1523.9 with my annual pivot at $1599.9 and semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1719.2, $1737.6, $1802.9 and $1852.1. Gold has become oversold on its weekly chart.

Nymex Crude Oil ($91.71): The 200-week SMA is $86.65 with the five-week MMA at $93.01 on a negative weekly chart profile. My quarterly pivot is $95.84 with monthly and annual risky levels at $98.23 and $115.23.

The euro vs the dollar (1.3125): The weekly chart profile is negative with the five-week MMA and 200-week SMA at 1.3215 and 1.3526. My semiannual value level is 1.2797 with monthly and annual pivots at 1.3249 and 1.3257 and quarterly pivot at 1.3334.

Dow industrial Average (14,329.49): Quarterly and annual value levels are 13,668 and 12,696 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 13,949 and 14,323. Thursday's high was a new all time intraday high at 14,354.69 versus this week's risky level at 14,387.
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