For almost two years -- between Seeking Alpha and TheStreet -- I have rebuffed the bear case on Pandora with informed opinion. Opinion informed by fact because I did my homework. I talk to the people at the company with the vision, who are executing the vision. When I disagree with a decision, I call them out on it.
But, by and large, I have been bullish.
In article after article, I referred to eMarketer's projections for mobile advertising revenue. Knowing what I know about Pandora's position in mobile and as a disruptor in radio, those were numbers you simply could not ignore. And now the story is playing out with authority.
May 8, 2012: Buy Facebook, Pandora on Mobile Dominance. At the time, Pandora traded at $8.60. Look where it is now. Fourteen bucks and change, as of after hours Thursday. A full $10 ahead of BTIG Media analyst Richard Greenfield's price target of around $4.00 per share.Flashback to March 9, 2012 and Forbes relaying a quote from Greenfield: "We would continue to short Pandora and are maintaining our $3.75 price target." Wow. I hope he covered. Look at this chart: P data by YCharts
Admittedly, it's ugly, but nowhere near as ugly as the losses Greenfield's firm and his clients have sustained if indeed they were short with any size whatsoever and did not cover strategically along the way. In any event, he's not alone. Lots of people missed the mobile story. eMarketer estimated Pandora would log $226.4 million in mobile revenue for calendar year 2012. For its fiscal year, the company recorded $255.9 million in mobile sales. And, a metric the bears chose to ignore continues to look rock solid, Mobile revenue growth at Pandora outpaces mobile listener hours. But what's funny is that that quarter of a billion in mobile ad revenue was little more than a pilot program for Pandora. Now, radio ad buyers will finally be able to see Pandora's ratings side-by-side with FM stations and make a buy on Pandora with what amounts to the touch of a button. (Bloomberg had that story.) Until now, it has never been that easy, in part because the terrestrial radio lobby resisted the level playing field every step of the way. Pandora already ranks as the number one station in most major markets, making it a no-brainer over terrestrial. Game over. Follow @rocco_thestreet --Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.
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