Kass: The Good, the Bad and the Ludicrous

This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro on March 7.

NEW YORK (Real Money) -- For the bears, Germany's factory orders stumbled unexpectedly in January, dropping by -1.9% against expectations for a gain of +0.6%. Here is some more negative data on Europe from Zero Hedge.

And Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said that the benefits of quantitative easing are "meager" and outweighed by the potential costs of such aggressive policy easing.

For the bulls, the administration and the Republicans are apparently talking nice to each other, and corporate and cash hoards are strengthening as the pace of secondary activity is quickening.

I am usually reluctant to make short-term market forecasts because they are typically no better than a coin toss.

But occasionally and briefly, I lose my sanity and deliver a ludicrous forecast.

And I will today.

Based on what I see, my ludicrous forecast is that Mr. Market will drop -- let's call it -0.5% to -1.0% -- today.

I have increased my short exposure on a scale this morning.

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