NFLX naturally pulled back, but barring something unforeseen, expect it to continue its run past $200. As much as I think this will -- irrationally -- take place, book profits if you bought this magic carpet ride back at $60 or $85 or $105. Don't get greedy. You are likely not already loaded like Hastings and other overconfident, borderline delusional, quite possibly disingenuous Netflix bulls.
Points one and three from Tullo pique my interest most.
As Tullo says, for Hastings to call "Arrested Development" "non-core" after pumping the living snot out of it for so long, publicly, is just absurd. As usual, there must be more to the story.
So, yeah, maybe the relatively new focus on original programming (in "House of Cards" style) renders the rebirth of cancelled shows "non-core," but there was also a time when original programming was just a hobby for Netflix. Again, go back and listen to the calls; Hastings changes like the wind.
My guess -- the information Netflix collects about your viewing habits means squat from an analytical standpoint. And it's about to fail miserably as it attempts to replicate HBO's success, which makes Tullo's suggestion of a merger with AMC timely. Get some folks involved in this thing who actually have a track record of success with originals. But, again, Hastings' need for control likely gets in the way.
When the dust settles on all of this, the theme I have pounded repeatedly for the last two-plus years remains: Companies such as
(VIAB - Get Report)
hold the cards and control Netflix's fate because they control the most desirable content.
My daughter asked me for our
log-in information the other day because she wanted access to Viacom's
(AAPL - Get Report)
She always used Netflix to watch Nickelodeon shows. But she's done with it now because, as she said, she has "seen everything" on Netflix and it doesn't have new, current season episodes and additional, exclusive content -- the type of stuff only Viacom can offer because
it owns and controls the content
I sum it up quite clearly in
Hulu, Netflix Only Make Cable TV Stronger
: The traditional model is not going away. The old guard media -- companies such as Viacom and
-- hold Netflix's (and Hulu's, for that matter) survival in their hands and deep pockets. And they will continue -- on their own timelines - to enhance their TV Everywhere platforms, ultimately making it so no need remains for Netflix's existence.
Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.