Stock Risky Despite Dow's First-Ever Monthly Close Above 14,000
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- My theme that stocks are a risky asset class in 2013 remains in place, but the Dow Industrial Average ended February with its first-ever monthly close above 14,000. I still show overhead risky levels that can be tested before the market reverses.
We have had two ValuEngine valuation warnings so for this year, and two potential technical key reversals that could not be confirmed.
In recent weeks I have been suggesting that investors reduce allocations to the U.S. equities market by 50% or back to the allocation dollar amounts equal to their holdings as March 2009 began, four years ago.
The key reason for the huge four year rally has been Federal Reserve policy, with the latest quantitative easing programs, QE3 and QE4 projected to continue until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5%. I view Fed Chief Ben Bernanke as the pied piper leading investors down a path to the river of U.S. equities, which remains a risky asset class.On Thursday we learned that the preliminary reading for Q4 GDP came in at an anemic +0.1% up from the advanced reading of -0.1%. Either GDP reading reminds me of the grade point average of Delta House in the movie "Animal House." Investors and traders who continue to disagree with my call that stocks are a risky asset class should remember that I have not yet called a market top, and have not yet suggested any specific short position. What I have done so far is to give traders buy-and-trade parameters for specific markets and stocks, and investors the opinion to use strength to raise cash. Also remember that I "pounded the table" as a stock market bull four years ago. The 2013 stock market is being led by old economy stocks in the transportation and industrial sectors. Only the Dow industrials and Dow transports set new multi-year or all-time highs on Thursday at 14,149.15 and 6035.34 respectively. We have not yet had that elusive Dow Theory Buy Signal I have been tracking since 2013 began. This requires a close on the Dow Industrial Average above its all time closing high at 14,164.53 set on Oct. 9, 2007.
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