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Stock quotes in this article: WMT, TOL

Just pointing it out! He could still be right!

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Maybe I Shoulda Been a Glib Macro Guy

Posted at 7:08 a.m. EDT on Friday, Feb. 22

One thing is for certain, if you asked the hedge funds what is the one reason why this market goes higher, they are going to say "the Fed."

And therein lies the real problem of this market. You either hate the Fed and think its bond-buying program is illegitimate, and you are therefore betting against stocks all the time. Or you fear that the data will one day be so good that the Fed will stop its program.

Just like from the beginning of the era of the billion-dollar hedge fund, there seems to be no middle ground. There seem to be so few people who say, "You know what? Corporations have a lot of money. Dividend boosts are rife. The merger games are on. The consumer's got a great balance sheet. The economy will be able to sustain itself. The stocks deserve to sell higher."

No.

It's either, "The Fed can't do this forever and it is all a big phony and it will never work and we are in a permanently crippled economy hobbled even further by Washington's strife and a very liberal president," or it's, "The Fed can't do this forever and it will stop well before it says it will and we will all be left sitting on the Titanic."

As a stock picker I feel endless pain from this one. How many times have I been faked out by this Fed/bad nonsense? How many times can you sell Heinz (HNZ) because of it, or NYSE Euronext (NYX) or Berry Petroleum (BRY) or Dell (DELL) or Google (GOOG) or Union Pacific (UP). The list goes on.

How many times can you hide in cash because of it?

I was furious yesterday every time the glib notion of "sell everything" was spoken. That's not a glib thing to say on air, believe me, because people actually do it.

The whole totally Fed-centric thing steams me.

Sometimes I wish I could change my stripes and be a big macro thinker, sit back and castigate the Fed and say "the market's a big joke."

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