My recommended investment strategy in this market environment has been to sell strength to risky levels and reduce exposures to the stock market by at least 50%. This is a contrarian opinion as most buy-side and sell-side strategists on financial TV are telling investors that stocks remain cheap and to buy dips. I strongly disagree as there is nothing wrong with profit-taking.
Here's my weekly review of the key levels for the U.S. capital markets:
The Yield on the 10-Year Treasury note
(1.984%) -- The weekly chart still favors higher yields, but my annual pivot at 1.981% was a magnet again this week. My annual and semiannual value levels are 2.476% and 3.063% with the annual pivot at 1.981% and a monthly risky level at 1.843%.
($1578.5) -- The weekly chart remains negative with a close today below the five-week MMA at $1644.7. The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is $1,410.8 with my annual pivot at $1,599.9 and semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1,719.2, $1,793.8, $1,802.9 and $1,852.1.
Nymex Crude Oil
($93.11) -- The weekly chart shifts to negative on a close today below the five-week MMA at $93.99. The 200-week SMA is $86.29 with monthly and quarterly pivots are $96.21 and $95.84 with my annual risky levels at $115.23 and $115.42.
The euro vs the dollar
(1.3189) -- The weekly chart stays negative on a close today below the five-week MMA at 1.3292. The 200-week SMA is a resistance at 1.3530. My semiannual value level is 1.2797 with my annual and quarterly pivots at 1.3257 and 1.3334 and monthly pivot at 1.3570.
The Dow Industrial Average
(13,881) -- Quarterly and annual value levels are 13,668, 12,696 and 12,509 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 14,132 and 14,323. The October 2007 high is 14,198.10 with the all time closing high is 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. A close below last week's low at 13,906.73 defines a weekly key reversal.
The S&P 500
(1502.4) -- Quarterly and annual value levels are 1431.1 and 1348.3 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1542.9 and 1566.9. These major risky levels are below the October 2007 high at 1576.09. A close below last week's low at 1513.63 defines a weekly key reversal.