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Getting Tesla Wrong

Stocks in this article: TSLA GM

They already have two or three other cars in the garage. Why would they NOT get a Tesla? This is why, in Silicon Valley, Tesla already has garnered a 100% market share in the last two months: Tesla: 100% Market Share in Silicon Valley

Fashion swings are dramatic. They go in waves, every few years. Right now, it's swinging heavily in Tesla's favor, just like the iPhone two to three years ago.

This is ultimately Tesla's peril, though. In due course, the probability that other car makers will trump Tesla's cool/fashion status is high. Perhaps not this year, or even next, but then again -- just look at all of these pictures (scroll all the way down): This Is Volkswagen's Crazy Awesome.

Let's say that Volkswagen was to make a version of this car with less expensive materials (steel and plastic, instead of carbon fiber), so it cost $39,000 instead of $100,000, it would rapidly become THE IT car. This is just one example of numerous outstanding electric car models that are on deck for 2014, 2015 and 2016.

If you think the Tesla is cool, Volkswagen, and soon BMW, General Motors' (GM) Cadillac, and every other car maker, will have a weapon somewhere in their pipeline to persuade you otherwise. The question is just when, and how those future products will be segmented in a market that's just dying to be segmented even more.

For now, though, Tesla is alone in its segment. It's got a monopoly on a formula that has passionate traction by people willing to stand in line to pay $100,000 for the most amazing car in the world. This success may not last forever, but at least this most recent quarterly earnings report was an incremental positive.

At the time of publication the author was long TSLA and AAPL.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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