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Annual seasonal influenza epidemics typically affect 5-15% of the population with mainly upper respiratory tract infections. On a global basis around 3-5 million cases of severe illness are estimated each year with an associated 250,000 - 500,000 deaths (WHO figures). Annual influenza vaccination is the most effective method for preventing influenza virus infection and its complications. Recommended groups for influenza vaccination are usually those most vulnerable and include the elderly, very young and those with underlying chronic diseases. In the US, influenza vaccination recommendations now include every person >6 mos. Influenza vaccines are predominantly of the trivalent inactivated format (TIV) although latest advances include the addition of another B virus strain to form quadrivalent (QIV) vaccines .
This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive MS Excel-based model + summary presentation which forecasts the potential commercial value of Quadrivalent influenza (QIV) vaccines across major Western and 20 emerging markets to 2030. The model contains value ($ m) and volume (mio doses) predictions along with launch timeframe, pricing and penetration estimates. 3 possible uptake scenarios for QIVs are included based upon the level of populations targeted. Estimated potential revenues for the main competitors are also included along with a review of their development status to date.
THIS PRODUCT IS A SUMMARY PRESENTATION + MODEL
Executive summaryQuadrivalent influenza vaccines: key model outputsSeasonal influenza vaccine(s): predicted market to 2030 (GLOBAL)Seasonal influenza vaccine(s): predicted volume to 2030 (GLOBAL)Seasonal influenza vaccine(s): predicted market by country to 2030 (WEST)Seasonal influenza vaccine(s): predicted market by country to 2030 (ROW)QIV vaccines: possible uptake scenarios (doses 000s)QIV vaccines: competitor revenues per uptake scenario (2020)Quadrivalent influenza vaccines: background/rationale for developmentBrief background to seasonal influenzaInfluenza virus typesAntigenic evolution of influenza virusesFocus on the influenza B virusInfluenza B virus lineagesInfluenza B virus prevalenceInfluenza B virus prevalence (US), 2001 – 2011Influenza B virus prevalence (EU), 2001 – 2011Influenza B virus diseaseInfluenza B virus and vaccinationInfluenza season and B lineage (US), 2001 – 2011Influenza B Strains recommended for inclusion in recent yearsInfluenza season and B lineage (EU), 2001 – 2011The need for a quadrivalent (QIV) influenza vaccineQuestions raised by QIV vaccinesQIV vaccines: manufacturing issuesQIV formats previously under considerationQuadrivalent influenza vaccines: summary of competitor activity to dateAZ/MedImmune: QIV vaccine developmentMedImmune: Overview of QIV studiesMedImmune: chronology of QIV regulatory reviewMedImmune: Phase II/III data 18-49 yrsMedImmune: Phase III data 2-17 yrsMedImmune: further studiesSanofi Pasteur: QIV vaccine developmentSanofi Pasteur: Phase II data – adultsSanofi Pasteur: Phase II data > 65 yrsSanofi Pasteur: Phase III studies/notesGSK: QIV vaccine developmentNovartis Vaccines: QIV vaccine developmentQuadrivalent influenza vaccines: modelling potential demand/commercial valueCountries included in analysisPopulations modelled to 2030Modelling strategy: segments/countriesROW Countries modelled: summary of schedule/volumesWest Countries modelled: summary of schedule/volumesCoverage assumptions per country/target group (West)Coverage assumptions per country/target group (ROW)Private sector growth rates applied: LOPrivate sector growth rates applied: HIModelling strategy: TIV pricingModelling strategy: QIV pricingQIV vaccines: estimated launch datesQIV vaccines: possible uptake scenariosQIV vaccines: possible uptake scenarios/market shareQIVs: competitor market share estimates: uptake scenarios 1 & 2QIVs: competitor market share estimates: uptake scenarios 3Commercial model: caveatsReferences/bibliographyAbout VacZine AnalyticsDisclaimerPAGES: 72 MS PowerPoint slides, fully referenced/sourced. Available in .pdf formContents – Vaccine demand model (MS Excel-based)Title sheetQIV analysis =>CHARTS QIV competitorsCHARTS QIV VOL scenariosSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 2SCENARIO 3Demand analysesCHARTS ALL VAL VOLCHARTS WEST VALCHARTS ROW VOLGrand value ROW (pub & priv)Grand value WEST (pub & priv)TIV pricing summaryGrand volume ROW (pub & priv)Grand volume WEST (pub & priv)Total volume sum (private ROW)Total volume sum (private West)Total volume sum (public ROW)Total volume sum (public West)Volume summary (infant risk)Volume summary (2-19 yrs risk)Volume summary (19-65 yrs risk)Volume summary (> 65 yrs)Private sector growth ratesCountry worksheets (all segments)USACanadaUnited KingdomFranceGermanyItalyArgentinaAustraliaBrazilChinaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaJapanMacauMalaysiaMexicoMongoliaNepalPakistanPhilippinesRussiaSouth KoreaTaiwanThailandVietnamResources =>>Country actual volume data (West)Country actual volume data (ROW)Schedules influenzaPopulation databases% privateBack pageWorksheets = >120 interconnected