Weekly Review of the Key Levels for the U.S. Capital Markets
The Yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note (1.950%): The weekly chart still favors higher yields, but my annual pivot at 1.981% remained a magnet after a testing 2.059% on Monday. The record low yield was set at 1.377% on July 25, which was before the Federal Reserve announced both QE3 and QE4. This implies that additional Fed purchases of longer dated U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are factored into the overall structure of the bond markets. My annual and semiannual value levels are 2.476% and 3.063% with the annual pivot at 1.981% and a monthly risky level at 1.843%.
Comex Gold ($1671.8): The gold bubble popped at $1,923.7 in September 2011 and attempts to re-inflate the bubble have failed. The base of the popped bubble is the $1,525.0 level, which held at the end of 2011. My annual value level is $1,599.9 with semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1,719.2, $1,793.8, $1,802.9 and $1,852.1.
Nymex Crude Oil ($96.21): The oil bubble popped at $147.27 in July 2008, and the 200-week simple moving average has been a magnet since June 2009 and is now a support at $85.86. So far in February, my monthly and quarterly pivots at $96.21 and $95.84 have been magnets and my annual risky levels at $115.23 and $115.42 are well below the all time high.The Euro vs. the Dollar (1.3391): The euro versus the dollar traded above its 200-week SMA at 1.3529 last week to a 52-week high at 1.3709. The euro is above quarterly and annual pivots at 1.3334 and 1.3257, and is back below a monthly pivot at 1.3570. The Dow industrial Average (13,944): Quarterly and annual value levels are 13,668, 12,696 and 12,509 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 14,132 and 14,323. The October 2007 high is 14,198.10 with the all-time closing high is 14,164.53 set on Oct. 9, 2007. We are tracking the all-time closing high because a new all-time closing high would confirm a Dow Theory Buy Signal. The S&P 500 (1509.4): Quarterly and annual value levels are 1431.1 and 1348.3 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1542.9 and 1566.9. The October 2007 high is 1576.09.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV