Kass: The Big Picture Remains Cloudy

With a gain of 6%, we all recognize that January 2013 was a great month for stocks. In fact, it was the best January in nearly 20 years.

At the same time, however, the record shows that when outsized January gains are achieved, in five of the seven years (1971, 1975, 1976, 1987, 1994, 1997 and 2011) the stock market peaked in the first half of the year -- in three years, the market peaked by April -- and four of the seven years ended lower than the January high and another ended flat. (The positive observation is that there were no large drawdown years, though there was a mighty selloff during the crash of 1987.)

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