BENTEK Energy Begins Monthly Market Report With 5-yr Crude Oil Forecasts
EVERGREEN, Colo., Feb. 4, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- BENTEK Energy, the natural gas and crude oil analytics unit of Platts, today announced the launch of its new monthly report, Market Call: North American Crude Oil , which features five-year price forecasts for a host of North American low-sulfur oils, commonly known as light, sweet crudes.
The new monthly is designed to help energy producers, suppliers and other market participants better understand and estimate how changes to macro crude oil fundamentals will impact regional prices across North America.
"The resurgence of U.S. oil production is altering traditional flow patterns and by 2018 should greatly reduce the need for foreign oil," said Anthony Scott, manager oil analysis, BENTEK Energy. "As the value of crude transportation capacity is realigned, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI)-Brent and regional U.S. price differentials will feel the effect."
The forecasts take into account such market fundamentals as regional production, Canadian and waterborne imports to the United States, refining demand, and transportation economics across North America.BENTEK analysts not only foresee record levels of light, sweet crude oils being produced in North America between now and 2018, they see those crudes reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast by several transportation means. As a result, price spreads between regional crude oils and WTI, the long-time U.S. barometer crude oil, are predicted to be quite volatile. By 2018, WTI is forecast to average $74.33 per barrel (/b). Price spreads between WTI and international crude oils, such as Brent, are likely to remain wide at more than $19/b, the report shows, as North American production growth displaces foreign imports. Driving the North American production increases will be the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian shale oil formations, which will combine for more than five million barrels of day of production in 2018. Included in the monthly report are:
- The outright WTI forecast as well as ten regional price differentials to WTI, including Louisiana Light Sweet, Western Canadian Select and Bakken crude oils
- Key fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand in North America, including production, imports/exports and refining demand
- Crude oil production forecasts by PADD in the U.S. and by major producing area in Canada and Mexico
- Canadian imports to the U.S. by quality and total regional capacity
- Transportation economics by barge, rail and pipeline with a special emphasis on crude-by-rail
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