The average car today sells for approximately $30,000, but the average MSRP of these cars is of course much higher.
125,000 cars in 2013 would be more than double the little over 50,000 sold in 2012 and still a healthy growth rate over the 17,500 or so sold in 2011. Many people tend to still dismiss the electric car market, especially those who have never driven one. But this growth rate is strong.
This 2013 estimate does not assume a spike in gasoline prices, or any dramatic increase in public charging stations. Any incremental tilt in terms of those two factors would likely push sales higher than my 125,000 estimate for 2013.
Then, in 2014, the market comes more into full bloom. In 2014, the BMW i3 will be shipping for a full year, the Tesla Model X starts shipping, the Cadillac ELR, the Infiniti LE, the Mitsubishi Outlander, the Mercedes B-Class and perhaps most importantly a slew of models from VW and Audi start hitting the market.
Whatever the number will be in 2013, it will be a lot higher than it was in 2012, and in 2014 it will be higher still. I can guarantee it.
2011: 17,500 units.
2012: 50,500 units.
2013: 125,000 units.
Those are the approximate numbers in this data series of plug-in electric car sales.
At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.