This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

The Best of Kass

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.

Among his posts this past week, Kass explained what Super Bowl ad spending means for stocks and reviewed the past week's economic indicators.

Please click here for information about subscribing to RealMoney Pro.

Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator
Originally published on Saturday, Feb. 2 at 9:00 a.m. EST.
  • The heavier the Super Bowl advertising by a company, the more likely its stock will underperform.

On Sunday, one of the grand sporting events of the year will take place: the Super Bowl.

Starting with Super Bowl XXXIV in January 2000, I created the Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator. The indicator, as Alan Abelson noted in Barron's:
... is a contrary indicator, kind of like the cover of Time. Its critical components are the commercials carried on television coverage of the event and the identity of the companies doing the advertising. Its virtue is not as a forecaster for the market as a whole but for individual sectors of the market.

My indicator dictates that the more intense the Super Bowl TV advertising by a group of companies, particularly in a specific industry, the more likely the stocks of those companies will perform poorly in the year ahead.

Total ad spending has decreased by approximately $50 million compared to 2012, with auto manufacturers cutting their total ad spending in half, from $136.5 million in 2012 to an estimated $60.8 million in 2013. This could be a result of continuing concerns about a weak European market or a more cautious attitude with regard to domestic automobile sales relating to the fiscal drag of higher personal tax rates.

General Motors ( GM) via Chevrolet was the highest spender on advertising during the Super Bowl in 2012, and subsequently GM shares saw a dramatic decrease in their share price by July, down to around $20 from a February high of $27. GM shares recovered as the year progressed, closing out 2012 slightly above $28. The car manufacturing industry comes in second place for 2013, with nine brands buying ad time for an estimated total of $60.8 million.

The competition between food and autos runs even deeper when it comes to the halftime show sponsorship. Since Super Bowl XLII in 2008, Bridgestone has been the sponsor.

PepsiCo ( PEP) has taken over sponsorship duties, however, to promote the Beyonce spectacle this year. (No word on whether lip-synching will be included in this event, too.)
1 of 3

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free
BBRY $6.76 -1.46%
BUD $123.05 -1.54%
GM $30.59 -2.11%
PEP $104.02 0.44%
AAPL $94.19 -1.04%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,651.26 -99.65 -0.56%
S&P 500 2,051.12 -12.25 -0.59%
NASDAQ 4,725.6390 -37.5850 -0.79%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs