The Extreme Movers: Metals Bounce Coming?
These areas have largely lagged the melt-up that began in June of last year, and I suspect this breakdown is a sign of capitulation. I very much think these areas are worth paying attention to in the weeks ahead given they they could outperform during a risk-off period.
Interestingly, very long duration bonds (EDV) also have done poorly, likely to rally on an oversold comeback. If the fear trades of gold and bonds are extreme on the downside, it seems entirely plausible for them to rally in a major way.
The bottom line? Energy continues its ascent and may be getting on the extreme side, while the metals and mining trade, with most notably gold and silver, combined with Treasuries, acting in a capitulation-type fashion just as a correction in risk assets may be about to begin. For those looking to be contrarian, a sharp bounce in the extreme losers this week may be in the cards.
At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
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