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NEW YORK (
Hewlett Packard(HPQ - Get Report) bondholders would likely be out of luck in a debt-feuled buyout of either company, according to a Thursday
analysis from ratings agency
According to a survey of investment-grade technology companies across Moody's ratings universe, Dell and HP have the weakest protections for bondholders - known as covenants - which may leave investors most vulnerable to potential debt-fueled buyouts.
Moody's identifies Dell and HP as not having so-called 'change of control' protections that would allow current bond holders to be paid back first in the event of a debt-financed acquisition of either company. Meanwhile, the ratings agency also says that the lion's share of Dell and HP's assets could be secured against new debts, exposing holders of both company's bonds to 'subordination', a term that signifies they would be paid back after new creditors.
The analysis is especially relevant given strong signs that a consortium involving Dell founder Michael Dell, private equity giant
Silver Lake Partners and
Microsoft(MSFT) could look to take over the struggling PC maker, according to multiple reports first made by
Amid speculation of a near $20 billion leveraged buyout of Dell, which
Bloomberg recently reported might give Michael Dell control of the company, analysts have also speculated that HP, the world's largest PC maker, could be the target of strategic or private equity investors.
Moody's analysis indicates that those potentially circling either tech company as a takeover target have more leeway to cut a deal than declining earnings and profit margins might indicate.
In particular, a lack of change of control covenants could make it easier for a private equity firm to issue new bonds to finance what would be record post-crisis LBO deals. New debt investors would potentially stand in the front of the line for getting their money back, ahead of current creditors.
The ability to secure assets other than property, plant and equipment, such as receivables or revenue streams, could also allow a potential private equity investor to pile more debt on Dell or HP's balance sheet than some may expect.
"Dell bondholders are not protected by a change of control put option," writes a team of Moody's credit analysts led by Stephen Sohn. "Furthermore, because Dell's limitations on liens only pertain to property, plant, and equipment, nearly all assets would be available for potential secured financing that would subordinate current noteholders."
The analysts conclude HP's bondholders stand in a relatively similar position.
That contrasts with other investment grade rated tech companies such as
Xerox(XRX - Get Report),
Computer Sciences Corp.(CSC - Get Report) and
Lexmark International(LXK), which Moody's says have far stronger protections against change of control and asset or revenue securitization.