Nine Stocks Taken to the Woodshed

About 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day simple moving averages, which is a warning of a potential reversion to the mean.

Here are my buy and trade strategies for the woodshed stocks:

BMC Software (BMC) ($41.47) missed quarterly earnings and the stock dropped from $44.48 at the close on Jan. 28 to a low of $40.00 at the open on Jan. 29. The stock has a Hold rating and is on the cusp of its 200-day SMA at $41.50. My monthly value level is $40.60 with a semiannual pivot at $42.30 and weekly risky level at $42.97.

Coach (COH) ($51.55) missed quarterly earnings and the stock plunged from $60.68 on Jan. 22 to a low of $50.47 on Jan 23. The stock has a hold rating and gapped below its 200-day SMA at $59.61. My monthly value level lags at $41.13 with a weekly risky level at $54.42.

Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) ($40.25) reported in an 8-K filing after the close on Jan. 25 that net income for 2012 would be reported approximately 20% lower than in 2011. The stock ended last week at $46.27 and traded as low as $37.31 on Jan. 28. The stock has a buy rating and plunged below its 200-day SMA at $44.93. I do not have a value level with a weekly pivot at $41.51 and weekly risky level at $44.39.

Lexmark International (LXK) ($24.15) missed quarterly results in a big way and the stock gapped from $27.95 at Monday's close to a low of $23.28 on Jan. 30. The stock has a buy rating with the stock on the cusp of its 200-day SMA at $24.01. My semiannual value level is $21.83 with a weekly risky level at $26.99.

NETGEAR (NTGR) ($36.15) pre-announced Q4 sales during the day on Jan. 29 that were well below analysts' estimates. The stock closed Jan. 28 at $40.83 and traded as low as $35.90 on Jan. 29, which was a test of the 200-day SMA at $35.90. The stock has a hold rating with my monthly value level at $33.60 with a quarterly pivot at $38.62 and semiannual risky level at $41.75.

PetSmart (PETM) ($65.10) fell on a Wall Street downgrade that cited competition from Amazon.com. The stock ended last week at $69.99 and traded as low as $62.63 on Jan. 28. The stock has a buy rating and broke below its 200-day SMA at $66.69. My semiannual value level is $62.22 with a weekly pivot at $67.83 and quarterly risky level at $73.81.

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