NEW YORK (
(CAT - Get Report) reported their earnings on Monday. The revenue was way down and their guidance was a huge range, 7 to 9 dollars. When you looked at that, that was not a very good report. However, the market has reacted kindly to them.
Right. I think that what we have to recognize is that this is a different kind of market. When those numbers came out and I studied the headlines and studied the outlook, I said the stocks should be down 2 or 3
. In 2012 this stock would have been down 3
, and now it's up. And that has to do with the conviction of this market that things are getting better, and I don't want to fight that.
I know that what will happen is that people will say this is unnatural and it's wrong, but I've always felt that you have to understand the coloration of each stock market that you're in. This stock market has a very forgiving attitude. This stock market is predicated on the idea that things are getting better. It's also predicated by the idea that the
is going to keep rates low. We've got to be careful there. That I do worry about. But this was the Exhibit A in what I call the 2013 Bull Market.
All right. Well it was interesting when, as you talk about, when you start to parse what they said because they were totally on the fence. They were, "...encouraged with the signs of improvement in the economy but we're cautious," and they would say something good. Then they'd say something bad.
That's exactly what used to drive the stock down because we would only look at what was bad. We would say, "OK, look. They've put up this positive news but forget about it because the negatives are there," and we're not looking at the negatives right now. Now someone could say, "Well that's the beginning of a big top," and I always avoid sweeping characterizations. I look at Caterpillar and I say, "OK. People feel things are getting better. Who am I to say that that's not the case?"
(HON - Get Report)
came out and said that Asia's getting much better. Europe is flattening out. U.S. is good. So I've got Honeywell saying that. I've got Caterpillar saying that. I see a lot of companies that are basically saying that the world is getting in a better place, so I am reluctant to be very negative.