NEW YORK ( ETF Expert) -- The S&P 500 is above 1500. CBOE S&P 500 Volatility (VIX) is sitting near 15-year lows. And 88% of iShares S&P 100 (OEF) component stocks are above respective 200-day moving averages.
Normally, you might hear more discussion about complacency and/or an imminent selloff. Instead, you're hearing more about the "Great Rotation" out of bonds and into stocks. In fact, if Laszlo Birinyi or Jeremy Siegel have your ear, we've just barely begun an exuberant stage for equities.
Bullish prognosticators certainly do have a mound of evidence to fall back on. Consider the iShares 20-Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT). Its current price is well below short- and long-term trendlines. And the 50-day recently crossed below the 200-day ... a price movement pattern known as a "death cross." (Note: The last "death cross" for TLT occurred more than two years ago.)
It may be reasonable to agree that long-term Treasuries are facing hardship. Or perhaps ... the potential rewards of owning TLT over the next year (e.g., yield, capital appreciation, perceived safety, etc.) are not commensurate with the possible risks (e.g., loss of principal, excessive volatility, etc.).On the other hand, it may be a bit nearsighted to dismiss the entire community of debt instruments. For example, over the past three months, the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) has put together 5.5%. The fiscal cliff impasse kept the market range-bound for a period of time, but the market has since gone on to hit a five-year peak; similarly, TLT has logged a dismal 3.1% decline. Nevertheless, a wide range of bonds has provided admirable risk-adjusted returns over the period. SPDR Convertible Bonds (CWB) garnered 4.1%, iShares High Yield Corporate (HYG) registered 2.2%, SPDR Barclay Emerging Market Local Bond (EBND) amassed 1.9% and Market Vectors High Yield Muni (HYD) served up a tax-free 1.3%.
|3-Month Total Returns For A Wide Range Of Bond ETFs|
|SPDR Barclays Convertible Bond (CWB)||4.1%|
|Peritus High Yield (HYLD)||2.6%|
|iShares High Yield Corporate (HYG)||2.2%|
|SPDR Barclays EM Local Bond (EBND)||1.9%|
|PIMCO 0-5 ST High Yield (HYS)||1.7%|
|PowerShares Senior Loan (BKLN)||1.6%|
|Market Vectors High Yield Muni (HYD)||1.3%|
|Vanguard Extended Duration (EDV)||-4.9%|
|iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT)||-3.1%|
|SPDR Barclays International Treasury (BWX)||-1.4%|
|Vanguard Long-Term Bond (BLV)||-1.0%|
|iShares 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF)||-1.0%|
|Vanguard Total Bond (BND)||-0.5%|
|PowerShares Build America Bond (BAB)||-0.4%|