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Market Hasn't Peaked

If the major equity averages test their longer-term risky levels, I will begin to call for a major market top. I show quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 14,118 and 14,323 Dow Industrial Average, 1510.0 and 1566.9 S&P 500, 3274 and 3583 Nasdaq, and 913.92 and 965.51 Russell 2000. Annual and semiannual risky levels are 5925 and 5955 Dow Transports.

Tracking Dow Theory: We ended Thursday with another new all-time closing high at 5854.94 for the Dow Transportation Average. To confirm a "Dow Theory Buy Signal" the Dow Industrials need to have a daily close above its all-time closing high of 14,164.53 set on Oct. 9, 2007. It will be difficult to confirm or sustain such a signal with the Dow risky levels at 14,118 and 14,323,

The key levels to hold on an early pullback are: quarterly pivots at 13,668 Dow Industrials, 1431.1 S&P 500 and 3071 on the Nasdaq, and annual pivots at 5469 on Dow Transports and 860.25 Russell 2000.

My annual value levels are the initial downside targets at: 12,696 and 12,509 on Dow Industrials, 1348.3 SP 500, 2806 and 2790 Nasdaq, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

Checking Levels for the other U.S. Capital Markets:

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note (1.906%): The weekly chart favors higher yields on a close Friday above the five-week modified moving averages at 1.791%. My annual pivot is the nearest value level at 1.981%. My annual and semiannual value levels are 2.476% and 3.063% with semiannual risky level at 1.413%.

Comex Gold ($1,664.90): Needs to close above its five-week MMA at $1,678.60 Friday to have a positive weekly chart profile. My annual value level is $1,599.9 with a monthly pivot at $1,673.80 and semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1,719.20, $1,802.90 and $1852.10.

Nymex Crude Oil ($96.30): The weekly chart stays positive on a close Friday above the five-week MMA at $92.25. My quarterly pivot is $95.84 with annual risky levels at $115.23 and $115.42. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $85.41.

The Euro vs. the Dollar (1.3453): The weekly chart becomes positive but overbought with a close above the five-week MMA at 1.3187 with upside to the 200-week simple moving average at 1.3526. My semiannual value level is 1.2797 with annual and quarterly pivots at 1.3257 and 1.3346.



At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.
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