4. Unlike USD, the yen is much less of a reserve currency. The ability of Japan to export inflation is nowhere near that of the Fed.
I don't know when the bubble will burst but this is a very real risk if Abe gets his way. BoJ has been steadfastly hawkish for a very good reason. I doubt the political harassment from Abe, along with his deputy (and former Prime Minister), Taro Aso, who just called on the old and the sick to "hurry up and die," as
reported by Business Insider
, would change that so easily.
After all, politicians come and go, especially in Japan of late. Abe's last stint as prime minister beginning in 2006 lasted exactly one year. I should mention that, during that previous incarnation as prime minister, Abe tried very hard to impress U.S. President George Bush as the staunchest ally in everything. Bush hardly returned the affection.
It looks like BoJ just put up a little challenge to Abe: "Here's what you wanted, now can you stay on long enough to get it?" If/when Abe gets replaced by a less suicidal prime minister, the QE-ternity may just be conveniently forgotten before ever seeing the light of the day.
The market saw this. JPY weakened initially, probably before hearing the date clause. Then it reverted strongly, with USD/JPY dropping from 90 to 89 in minutes.
But there is an important date before the delayed commencement of QE, Japan style. In April the governor of BoJ is due for a change. Two likely successors to the steady hands of current governor Masaaki Shirakawa are both dovish, as
reported by Asahi Shimbun
. If either of them gets the job, and if Abe hasn't lost his by then, the current non-QE plan would likely be revised and implemented quickly.
There's much uncertainty over the next few months. But the likelihood of a continued run in JPY (down, as can be implemented by shorting
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF
) and stocks (up, via
iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF
for example; but note, EWJ has the USD/JPY exchange rate built in, and is mainly consisted of exporters, so its performance may differ significantly from that of the broad
indices) is low.
The one-way markets will most likely go into gyration while waiting for news and trying to find a direction. If you have gotten on for the ride, congrats. Take the money and look for calmer waters.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
At the time of publication, the author was long gold.