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Bobbing for Another Apple

Only the very bottom estimates for 2014 (the next fiscal year) suggest 2014 will not turn into a record year for revenue. Yet, as clear as crystal, emotion has taken hold of the weaker hands, and the stock is trading with single-digit P/Es. Intel didn't delight Wall Street with its last earnings report and continues to trade at a higher valuation.

Don't get me wrong, I am bullish on Intel, but it's a good example to use since the chipmaker reported a few days ago. RIM and Nokia may move around as the headlines pump and dump the stocks, but in the end, both have massive headwind in trying to gain a real foothold of market share currently occupied by Google's (GOOG) Android and iPhones.





I have written this before, but maybe I need to scream it at the top of my lungs: Changes in parts parts ordered are not going to change the fact that the iPhone 5 sold better during its opening weekend than any previous iPhone.

Part supply may have affected early sales after the opening, but the supply chain issues are solved and the phones continue a brisk pace of sales. That's wonderful, but there is still something more important to consider.

Apple's ecosystem tends to make customers sticky. iTunes, apps and other digital products are sold in increasing numbers from the growing base of customers. It's the ecosystem that investors should focus on. Without an enterprise email structure keeping RIM relevant, the Canadian company would have most likely become another PALM, and basically sold for scrap.

Don't get overly caught up in this earnings report. Especially from metrics that should never have a quarterly focus (good or bad). Look for trends spanning several quarters, and use the higher implied volatility to sell option premium, not buy it.

I believe Apple will test $600-plus again within 12 months. Feel free to share your thoughts on what Apple's price target should be in the comments below.

At the time of publication, Weinstein was long INTC.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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