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Pivots Still at Play in January

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The solid start for U.S. equities in 2013 is surprising given overvalued fundaments. Even with this near term market strength, my theme for 2013 remains that stocks are a risky asset class. If the Dow Jones Industrial Average ends this week above my quarterly risky level at 13,668 the upside technical momentum continues as stocks become even more overvalued fundamentally and more overbought technically.

A warning that stocks have achieved significant highs requires the Dow transportation average to have a weekly close below its annual pivot at 5469. This is highly unlikely to occur today, as Thursday's close was the third consecutive all-time high.

On Wednesday, I wrote, Transports Are Truckin' Ahead of Earnings , and explained that confirming a macro "Dow Theory Buy Signal" requires that the Dow Industrials set a new closing high above its current closing high at 14,164.15 set on Oct. 9, 2007. Without this signal the stock market is establishing a major top that could last several years.

On Thursday, I wrote, Overvalued Home Builders Face Earnings Hurdle , and explained that some home builder stocks continue to have buy ratings with the momentum to trade higher near term. However, in each of the past two months the number of the buy-rated home builder stocks has declined. On Thursday, following the solid housing starts data only buy-rated Pulte Group (PHM - Get Report) set a new multi-year high. Buy-rated D R Horton (DHI - Get Report), hold-rated KB Home (KBH - Get Report) and buy-rated Toll Brothers (TOL - Get Report) stayed below multi-year highs set in September/October.

Next week is another important week for earnings. On Monday I will profile five Dow components and four other stocks including Google (GOOG - Get Report) who reports quarterly results after the close on Tuesday. On Tuesday I will profile another five Dow stocks and four other stocks including Apple (AAPL) who reports quarterly results after the close on Wednesday. On Tuesday, I profiled Apple and Google in Mojo Shifting for Apple, Amazon and Google .

The fundamentals for the stock market are not cheap; 43% of all stocks are undervalued with 57% overvalued. All 16 sectors are overvalued with eight overvalued by double-digit percentages; consumer staples, construction, transportation, industrial products, finance, medical, computer and technology and retail-wholesale.
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DHI $30.05 -1.00%
GOOG $693.00 0.29%
KBH $13.58 -0.48%
PHM $18.39 -0.70%
TOL $27.30 -0.80%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,773.64 -57.12 -0.32%
S&P 500 2,065.30 -10.51 -0.51%
NASDAQ 4,775.3580 -29.9330 -0.62%

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