50-day moving average
has been a good proxy for support over the course of the pattern - that's where I'd recommend putting a protective stop on this trade.
Archer Daniels Midland
On the other hand,
Archer Daniels Midland
(ADM - Get Report)
has had a less stellar year. This stock has shed a few hundred basis points over the last year, a time when the rest of the stock market climbed pretty substantially. But a reversal pattern in shares means that the worse of the selling could be over for ADM shareholders.
ADM is currently forming a double bottom, a reversal pattern that's formed by two swing lows that bottom out at approximately the same price level. Those two bottoms are separated by a peak, a level that marks the trigger point for this trade. For ADM, that breakout level is $29 - a move above that price sends a buy signal for this stock.
There are two important things to consider about the ADM trade. First, the double bottom is a deep pattern, with a range accounting for around 20% of the stock's price. Second, the pattern has been forming since the summer, so it's a long-term setup. Those two factors mean that a breakout in ADM is more likely to move shares materially higher and for a long time. Keep that in mind as you wait for the breakout in this stock - and when it happens, keep a tight stop.
If the chart above of
(XOM - Get Report)
looks sort of familiar, it's because I featured the oil and gas supermajor in
this same column last week
. There is one big difference since then, however, and it warrants a second look.
Last week, we were watching for a breakout in Exxon's falling wedge. Despite appearances, the falling wedge is actually a bullish pattern that's formed by converging trendlines - and the breakout above resistance was the buy signal for this stock. We got that breakout just a couple of trading sessions ago, and shares have been consolidating ever since. That's a buy signal for XOM right now.
was an early indicator that a breakout was forthcoming - 14-day RSI pushed through its trendline resistance level two days before XOM's share price did the same. Momentum should continue to be a good way to spot divergences in advance for this stock. If you do decide to be a buyer here, I'd recommend putting a stop just below the 200-day moving average.