Maybe Nokia will release a new hot phone before the shopping season, but it appears the smart money is on RIM trying to sell yesterday's newspaper again this fall. Even if RIM's new phone is evergreen and remains popular, is it enough?
I don't think we can tell at this time. The BlackBerry 10 may fill the sails with air for now, but one-hit wonders won't keep the price of the stock moving from the bottom left to the upper right on a chart. You still may be able to buy RIM and make a buck or two, though.
RIM's shares are likely to spike higher during the week of BlackBerry 10's release. What may turn into the biggest catalyst for what may be a significant rise is short sellers and not the phone.
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About 30% of the float is sold short, based on the last report. Even if for only a short-lived boost higher, you have to anticipate upward price pressure like a soda after being shook up for over a year straight.
As a result, shorting RIM here is filled with peril, but buying for an investment hold appears equally hazardous. The best play with RIM appears to be buying shares now, and closing out the position either the day before, day of, or day after RIM releases the new phone. This is a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news type of event. Just don't get caught up in the hoopla of the phone and believe it will last more than a month or two. Remember, it only took a short period of time for
to put the Lumia on sale (AT&T had an exclusive) after reporting they were selling out in many of the stores.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.