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India Autos Report Q1 2013

strong growth in UV sales to continue and provide an additional boost to overall passenger vehicle sales

for FY2013.


BMI also believes that SIAM's commercial vehicle (CV) forecast revisions are overly bearish and we are

taking a more bullish stance. We are revising our CV sales growth forecast to 7.1% from 12.9

%previously to hit 867,000 units by end FY2013. It was BMI's view last year that the CV segment would

easily outperform passenger car sales due to demand for construction and infrastructure projects and it

played out well for us. While we do not think such strong growth rates will continue, we see no reason to

be overly bearish on this segment.




Executive Summary

. 5

SWOT Analysis . 6

India Auto Industry SWOT . 6

India Political SWOT . 7

India Economic SWOT ... 8

India Business Environment SWOT ... 9

Global Overview . 10

UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform ... 10

Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 ... 10

Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On .. 10

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 15

Table: Business Environment Ratings -- Auto Industry Asia Pacific 18

Regional Overview . 19

Japanese Autos: Outlining The Bear Case Alternatives 19

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .. 25

Table: India - GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown 27

Industry Forecast Scenario ... 28

Production And Sales 28

Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production, 2009-2017 28

Trade 29

Table: India Autos - Trade, 2009-2017 29

Industry Developments.. 30

Passenger Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis . 32

Production And Sales 32

Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Cars, 2009-2017 . 32

Company Developments 32

Commercial Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis ... 37

Production And Sales 37

Table: India Autos Sector - Commercial Vehicles, 2009-2017 37

Company Developments 38

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