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I'm Really Worried About Apple for a Dumb Reason

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- There's been a fair bit of talk this week about Jim Cramer's comments on TheStreet and CNBC that his daughter just doesn't dig Apple (AAPL - Get Report) much anymore, particularly iTunes.

(See Cramer's take here with TheStreet's Debra Borchardt.)

I appreciate this type of anecdotal information. Many AAPL bulls were quick to discount it, but that's just emotion coming through. Very typical. We filter out information that doesn't jibe with our desired reality.

As I riffed on Twitter this morning, there's no doubt much of this AAPL bearishness is comical, but in investing, the most loyal and passionate supporters of a stock do not necessarily win. Dig your heels in too deep and there's a good chance you'll get wiped out.

What Cramer's daughter thinks matters. I use observations from my kid and her friends all the time. They help create the portrait. But if you think for a second that Cramer bases his entire opinion of AAPL on what his kid thinks of iTunes, you're the one not taking the papers.

I really believe we're looking at an isolated set of cases. You know, the people who aren't feeling Apple anymore. I just don't think this crowd has had or will have much of an impact on sales anytime soon.

I saw a note from Telsey Advisory Group this morning that said it best: The firm reiterated a $710 price target on AAPL and questioned rumors of weak iPhone 5 demand. These analysts are just not seeing it.

Ultimately, Apple's problem comes down to the big numbers it puts up. We're working with a high bar. Never a good thing in a society of unrealistic expectations. Telsey thinks Apple will report first-quarter EPS of $12.68 compared to $13.87 last year. Psychologically, that looks bad to lots of people, because a key number went down. When we're seeing estimates on either side of 50 million for iPhone unit sales, it's tough to argue about Apple's dominance, yet investors could still hammer the stock if Apple sells "only" 49.5 million phones.

But Best Buy (BBY) pops because things weren't that bad, and Dell (DELL) spikes on what amounts to bailout chatter. You know how it goes: Investors will buy a stock floated by a company trying to find a few suckers to take it private, but they fret over Apple selling nine fewer iPhones than expected in Puerto Rico.
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