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There's More to Ford than Meets the Eye

Stocks in this article: F

TheStreet's Research Director Stephanie Link and ACTIONALERTSPLUS' Jim Cramer recently commented on this powerfully positive trend in an article titled "10 Lucrative Themes for 2013.

They opined, "In 2013, China stands to be a tailwind for the auto sector and Europe will be cordoned. That means Ford and General Motors (GM) are going to be huge stocks."

Ford also happens to be Mr. Cramer's favorite auto stock for the year ahead.

Referring again to these rebounding American auto companies, they wrote:"They should be terrific -- particularly Ford, which keeps refinancing and refinancing, and just refinanced a gigantic piece of paper last week. No one even notices anymore. They should. They will when the company reports."

Speaking of earnings reports, Ford brings the news on its latest quarterly results next Tuesday. Analysts' consensus estimate on EPS is 26 cents a share, a whopping 30% increase over the same quarter a year ago.

The average quarterly revenue estimate is for $33.17 billion, a slight increase from the same quarter last year. But this is only the tip of the iceberg, and by some estimates Ford and Lincoln will sell more cars and other products in 2013 than they have since 2006.

The earnings reports in subsequent quarters may surprise to the upside enough to move Ford's share price significantly higher than the consensus estimate. That is one of the big "drivers" (if you'll pardon the pun) of the stock's powerful upside momentum

As the chart above indicates, shares of F have had a sharp run-up already. Risk-averse investors may want to wait until shares experience a correction to $13 or lower before accumulating. From its 52-week low of $8.82 established last summer to Tuesday's closing price of $14.30 on above-average volume, Ford shares have soared 62% already.

My best, educated guess is those who bought shares last year are selling them short and plan on "buying-to-cover" after F cools its wheels and comes back down to earth. That's when yours truly and other patient investors anxious to participate in Ford's amazing comeback will begin to be buyers.

At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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