8. The 4G Build-Out
I wish I could be more bullish on tech, but way too much of it is still personal-computer-centric, and I don't think this will be the year of the PC -- nor next year, for that matter.
However, it will be the year of the 4G build-out. Unfortunately, there are very few ways to play this beyond the continual theme of the towers -- American Tower (AMT), Crown Castle (CCI) and SBA Communications (SBAC). Still, lately we've seen some optical plays do well, and I am encouraged by the continued growth of video. Two I am watching and willing to pounce on are JDS Uniphase (JDSU) for fiber and fiber testing, and Akamai (AKAM) for video on demand. Lots of people want to play the component companies for cell phones. Too hard for me. Learned that lesson.
As for as the rest of tech? Sure, I suspect we will see money continue to come in to Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG), but they are battlegrounds. Apple (AAPL - Get Report) remains a hold, and so does Amazon (AMZN). I wish I could be more enthusiastic, but when you are, you get your head cut off for it.What I like about my themes is that they can be bought on weakness. However, the weakness that could bring down a company like Google or Apple or Amazon or Facebook is a type of weakness that has to be studied and examined, and is distinctly company-specific, and that's what I am trying to avoid by focusing on themes and not individual stocks.