This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Jim Cramer's Protégé, Dave Peltier, only buys Stock Under $10 that he thinks could potentially double or triple in the next 6 to 12-months. See what he's trading today with a 14-day FREE pass.

Kass: The Consensus Is Complacent

This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:31 a.m. EST on Jan. 9.

NEW YORK (Real Money) -- My general impression is that the consensus of both the technical crowd and the fundamental crowd is upbeat after the first week of trading in 2013.

It is encouraging to technicians that the indices have held onto most of the gains following the fiscal cliff fiasco -- and there is the lame and random January indicator, which I personally give almost zero predictive ability.

Fundamentalists see an upbeat backdrop as they cite improving economic momentum in the U.S., Europe and China. They throw out the first quarter of 2013 and talk about "cliff fatigue." Some even say it's OK if we end up without an agreement on spending and entitlement cuts. The bulls just want the government out of the way -- and it will be business as usual.

From my perch, I disagree with both.

The price charts are a picture of what has happened in the past and don't indicate with precision what will happen in the future.

Fundamentally, too, as I described in my "15 Surprises for 2013," there is less than meets the eye to the generally upbeat impression that momentum is gaining. I think it odd that few are incorporating the impact of the Jan. 1 tax hikes on personal consumption. And I believe the multiplier applied to those tax-rate hikes is being underestimated.

Importantly, I don't think the bullish fundamentalists recognize the dependency and lack of sustainability in fiscal and monetary policy or that our budget is out of control and zero interest rates should not be considered a permanent condition.

Important, to me, is that the outlook for corporate profits is weakening.

Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
DOW 17,083.80 -2.83 -0.02%
S&P 500 1,987.98 +0.97 0.05%
NASDAQ 4,472.1080 -1.5890 -0.04%

Our Tweets

Brokerage Partners

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs