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Tanger Outlets: Goldman Is Wrong

At $34.35, I am not arguing that Tanger is a bargain. It's not. With a P/AFFO multiple of 20.27, the blue-chip REIT is what I would consider moderately expensive. However, selling a blue-chip REIT that has been throwing off and increasing dividends for 20 years in a row is foolish -- especially when the business model seems bullet proof (31 consecutive quarters of NOI increases).

Tanger, with one of the most well-positioned balance sheets in REITdom, has built not only an intelligently aligned growth strategy but also a recession-resilient brand. Furthermore, Tanger's extraordinarily strong sources of cash flow with limited competition (Goldman: This is what Warren Buffett calls a "wide moat" brand) is highly sustainable and the essence of the stalwart REIT's repeatable platform is best summed up by the company's CEO and president Steven B. Tanger, according to SNL Financial:

In good times, people love a bargain, and in tough times, people need a bargain.

My Recommendation: Don't Sell. Tanger shares should grow by 15% in 2013 and combined with a durable 2.45% dividend, I expect the company to outperform and provide total returns of at least 15%. This is an "intelligent REIT pick" and a sell of the stock today is simply foolish.



At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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