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Mobile Makes Facebook Hot Again

I would like to believe that. It's a good story. It may turn out to be true. But something tells me Facebook's future remains no more guaranteed than it ever was. It's almost as easy to change apps as it would be to click from one Web site into another. Reputation still matters a great deal, and what was found can quickly be lost.

I still want to be from Missouri here. I still want to see Facebook's numbers at the end of this month. It's possible that, as Techcrunch notes, the company's price is being held up by the controlled way in which early shareholders are cashing out , through SecondMarket auctions, rather than simple sell orders to brokers.

As earnings hype rises, Facebook shares are selling at a PE near that of Amazon.com. I think Amazon is overpriced, too, but I trust its numbers and track record. Facebook's track record is very brief and very spotty by comparison.

So we'll see.

At the time of publication the author had positions in AAPL and GOOG.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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