It's been quite a year for PulteGroup (PHM). Shares of the $7 billion homebuilder rallied close to 200% in the last year, buoyed by some auspicious signs of a rebound in the new home market. After such a big move, it's only natural for investors to feel a little anxious about jumping onboard here. But a bullish price pattern in Pulte points to even more upside for this momentum name in 2013.
Right now, PulteGroup is forming an ascending triangle. The ascending triangle is a price pattern that's formed by horizontal resistance to the upside and uptrending support below shares. Essentially, as PHM bounced in between those two technical price levels, it was getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above resistance -- that's the buy signal for this pattern. Like the broad market, Pulte is testing a breakout this week, sitting right above $18.50 resistance. Ideally, I'd like to see a more definitive move higher before calling it a buy signal; PHM saw these prices back in December, only to move back within the channel.
That said, and momentum adds some extra confidence to the trade this time around. 14-day RSI is locked in a well-formed uptrend right now. Since momentum is a leading indicator of price, that's a bullish sign. From here, I'd recommend waiting for the move above Wednesday's highs. When that happens, we've got the confirmation to buy PHM.The 50-day moving average is a strong place to put a protective stop from here.
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