Vivus (VVUS): I hope an investor stands up in the breakout session and demands CEO Leland Wilson strike a marketing deal with Big Pharma immediately, or put the entire company up for sale. Qsymia's horrible sales numbers so far don't exactly put Vivus in the strongest negotiating position, but the current "go it alone" commercial strategy for the weight-loss pill is a total failure. Vivus is desperate for help. (Amaroids, take note -- Vivus could be your fate, too.)
Biogen Idec (BIIB): The FDA approval decision date for the multiple sclerosis pill BG-12 is March 28. The current sell-side consensus estimate for 2013 sales of BG-12 is approximately $346 million. The on-time approval and strong commercial launch of BG-12 is the biggest, most important storyline for Biogen in 2013, particularly true after the failure of dexpramipexole in ALS on announced Thursday. Current consensus 2013 earnings estimate is $7.27 per share on total revenue of $5.98 billion.
Gilead Sciences (GILD): Investors love Gilead, and who can blame them given the stock's 80% return in 2012. The story for 2013 is more of the same: Data from several phase III studies of the company's GS-7977 in hepatitis C are due in the current quarter, leading to regulatory submission in the second quarter and approval in early 2014 (or perhaps late this year.) Gilead is also moving forward with late-stage studies of the more important, all-oral combination of GS-7977 and GS-5885.
On the commercial front, the recent approval and launch of Stribild promises to bolster growth in the company's core HIV franchise. Gilead is super-awesome! What could possibly go wrong?
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