NEW YORK (
(AAPL - Get Report) has been an excellent stock for my buy-and-trade strategy. Looking back to Sept. 12 when I wrote
Amazon, Apple and Google Now Overvalued
Apple was trading at $660.59 on the way to an all time high at $705.07 set on Sept. 21. At that time Apple stock had a fair value at $609.12 making the stock 8.5% overvalued. The one-year price target was $700.63. Apple thus rallied to its one year price target, then declined to its fair value.
Apple failed to hold its 200-day simple moving average then at $590.33 on Nov. 2, which accelerated its downside momentum. At the market's Nov. 16 lows, Apple's low was $505.75.
On Nov. 21, I wrote
Santa Claus Rally Eyed for Online Leaders Apple, Amazon and Google
with Apple at $560.91, and my suggested buy-and-trade" strategy was to book profits on strength to the stock's five-week modified moving average, then at $586.46. This test occurred on Nov. 26.
On Nov. 27 I wrote,
Apple Wakes Up to a Downgrade
to hold from buy. Apple continued to have some upside to just above $594 on Nov. 29 and Dec. 3, but then turned lower in a move to as low as $501.23 on Dec. 17.
On Dec. 7 I wrote
How to Trade Apple's Bungee Jump
noting that the day before with the stock as low as $518.63 Apple was upgraded back to a buy rating. Even with the additional weakness to Dec. 17, the stock did rebound to $555.20 intra-day on Dec. 7.
The fundamentals for the stock market deteriorated further as 2013 began on Wednesday when the market outran its valuations and as the yield of the
30-year bond rose to 3.042% from 2.951% on Monday.