NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Apple (AAPL) has been an excellent stock for my buy-and-trade strategy. Looking back to Sept. 12 when I wrote Amazon, Apple and Google Now Overvalued Apple was trading at $660.59 on the way to an all time high at $705.07 set on Sept. 21. At that time Apple stock had a fair value at $609.12 making the stock 8.5% overvalued. The one-year price target was $700.63. Apple thus rallied to its one year price target, then declined to its fair value.
Apple failed to hold its 200-day simple moving average then at $590.33 on Nov. 2, which accelerated its downside momentum. At the market's Nov. 16 lows, Apple's low was $505.75.
On Nov. 21, I wrote Santa Claus Rally Eyed for Online Leaders Apple, Amazon and Google with Apple at $560.91, and my suggested buy-and-trade" strategy was to book profits on strength to the stock's five-week modified moving average, then at $586.46. This test occurred on Nov. 26.
On Nov. 27 I wrote, Apple Wakes Up to a Downgrade to hold from buy. Apple continued to have some upside to just above $594 on Nov. 29 and Dec. 3, but then turned lower in a move to as low as $501.23 on Dec. 17.On Dec. 7 I wrote How to Trade Apple's Bungee Jump noting that the day before with the stock as low as $518.63 Apple was upgraded back to a buy rating. Even with the additional weakness to Dec. 17, the stock did rebound to $555.20 intra-day on Dec. 7. The fundamentals for the stock market deteriorated further as 2013 began on Wednesday when the market outran its valuations and as the yield of the U.S. Treasury 30-year bond rose to 3.042% from 2.951% on Monday.
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