This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
TheStreet Open House

The 'Bond Vigilante vs. Fed' Mantra Makes No Sense

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- There is a new macroeconomic mantra that has spread itself across the markets and on CNBC in the last couple of months in particular. It goes something like this:

1. The U.S. Treasury issues $1.3 trillion per year in deficit financing;

2. The Federal Reserve buys over 80% of the deficit -- $85 billion per month;

3. The "Bond Vigilantes" are dead because the Fed buys essentially all the bonds;

4. There is no inflation, and interest rates will stay low forever simply because the Fed has unlimited buying power;

5. Downgrading U.S. government debt by rating agencies don't matter, because after they did it last time (August 2011) interest rates only went down.

Turn on CNBC and you will hear some minor version of this "new reality" more times per day than you can count. Listening to this you could be excused for thinking there is no reason to worry, ever. Deficits don't matter, and interest rates can never rise.

Here is what you have to ask yourself: If it's this easy, why doesn't everyone do it all the time?

What we have in the U.S. right now is massive, painless government spending: The government essentially spends whatever it wants, because its compliant Federal Reserve simply prints up the difference between tax revenue and spending.

As you can see from this data series , cumulative federal spending was $28 trillion over the last 10 years. For the next 10 years, the most conservative outlook is $46 trillion, a 65% increase over the previous 10 years.

Back to the central question: If it's this easy, why doesn't everyone do it?

The cost of this policy appears to be nothing, zero:

  • No inflation
  • No high interest rates
  • No economic collapse
  • No need to cut any government program, ever
  • No currency crisis

It's all sweetness, light and jingles. Candy all the way, no hard work, no saving, no deferral of spending, no pain, no problem.

Let's cut a few decimal points off this Federal government equation to show what it would mean for an individual. You make $250,000 per year, you spend $380,000, you borrow $30,000 and you go to your basement printing press for $100,000 in $20 bills to pay for your drug habit.

Anything wrong with this picture?

We are being told there is no penalty for this policy. We are immune to any need to cut our excessive spending habit because can print almost all of the deficit. There is, therefore, no price to pay.

Why even bother discussing austerity programs, whether in Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal or right here in the U.S.? If the U.S. can be just fine simply printing almost its entire deficit, why can't Europe do the same? If there truly is no cost to doing this, why hold back?

1 of 3

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Try it NOW
Only $9.95
Try it NOW
14-Days Free
Try it NOW

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Options Profits

Our options trading pros provide over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • Actionable options commentary and news
  • Real-time trading community
Try it NOW
Try it NOW
Try it NOW
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
AAPL $123.25 0.00%
FB $83.30 0.00%
GOOG $548.34 0.00%
TSLA $185.00 0.00%
YHOO $45.10 0.00%


DOW 17,712.66 +34.43 0.19%
S&P 500 2,061.02 +4.87 0.24%
NASDAQ 4,891.2190 +27.8570 0.57%

Partners Compare Online Brokers

Free Reports

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs