NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.
Among his posts this past week, Kass wrote about some encouraging economic data, the possibility of a last-minute fiscal deal and why shares of Ford likely will make a pit stop at current levels.
Please click here for information about subscribing to RealMoney Pro.
Originally published on Friday, Dec. 28 at 11:01 a.m. EST. The December Chicago Manufacturing Index came in above expectations, at 51.6 vs. consensus of 51 and 50.3 in November. This is the best reading since mid-2008 and represents the second consecutive reading above 50. Notwithstanding the ubiquitous fiscal cliff debate (and its impact on growth), this print is encouraging and reverses the weakness of the September-October period. Importantly, the spread between orders and inventories widened, which means production should accelerate in the time ahead. In terms of components, the orders lifted measurably by 9 points, to 54, and the employment component dropped considerably, so we have to watch this. If we look at the manufacturing results from the Richmond, Chicago and Milwaukee surveys, we can expect December's national ISM (to be reported on Jan. 2) to climb above 50. (It was 49.5 in November.) We are seeing a slow improvement in manufacturing and business fixed investment, but the latter still remains very low relative to balance sheet liquidity and profits. If we get some fiscal cliff resolution, a lot of catch-up should be expected. Finally pending home sales, which foreshadow existing-home sales, rose by nearly 2% (or double expectations). This is the third consecutive monthly increase, and the series is up 8% year-to-date. This index is now at the best level since 2007. I continue to expect a durable and extended recovery in the U.S. residential real estate market in the years ahead. At the time of publication, Kass had no positions in securities mentioned.
Common Sense and the Cliff
Originally published on Thursday, Dec. 27 at 5:10 p.m. EST. It's always reasonable to expect a last-minute deal. Today was but another reason to treat Mr. Market as a "trading sardine" market, not an "investing sardine" market.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV