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Santa Claus Takes Up Cliff Diving

Analysis of the Nasdaq (2985.91): The weekly chart shifts to neutral from positive with a close today below the five-week MMA at 2991 with downside risk to the 200-week SMA at 2500. The monthly chart shifts to negative from positive but overbought with a close on Monday below the five-month MMA at 2973. The downside risk is to the 120-month SMA at 2264. The September 2012 high at 3196.93 should be the upside barrier in 2013.

Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (2632.94): The weekly chart shifts to neutral from positive with a close today below the five-week MMA at 2656 with downside risk to the 200-week SMA at 2132. The monthly chart shifts to negative from positive but overbought with a close Monday below the five-month MMA at 2645. The downside risk is to the 120-month SMA at 1797. The September 2012 high at 2878.38 should be the upside barrier in 2013.

Analysis of the Dow Transportation Average (5265.70): The weekly chart stays positive with a close today above the five-week MMA at 5138 with the 200-week SMA at 4561. The monthly chart stays neutral with a close on Monday above the five-month MMA at 5079. The 120-month SMA is 4155. Dow Transports set its all-time high at 5627.85 in July 2011, which should be a barrier in 2013.

Analysis of the Russell 2000 (837.40): The weekly stays positive with a close today above the five-week MMA at 822.39. The 200-week SMA is at 703.49. The monthly chart stays neutral with a close Monday above the five-month MMA at 808.66. The 120-month SMA is at 667.01. There appears to be a double-top at 868.57 set in May 2011 and 868.50 set Sept. 14, 2012.

Analysis of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) (379.55): The weekly chart shifts to neutral from positive with a close today below the five-week MMA at 377.44 with downside risk to the 200-week SMA at 363.26. The monthly chart stays negative with a close Monday below the five-month MMA at 384.32. The SOX is below its 120-month SMA at 398.41. The SOX has seen lower highs since the July 2007 high at 549.39. The Feb 2011 high was 474.33 and the March 2012 high was 444.96.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.
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