Santa Claus Takes Up Cliff Diving
Analysis of the Yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note (1.723%): As we approach year end, the 10-year yield is just above the five-week MMA at 1.687% and on the cusp of the five-month MMA at 1.725%. Odds favor a continued low yield trading range leaving the 2012 range in tact in 2013. (2.399% to 1.377%).
Analysis of Comex Gold ($1,664.5): The weekly chart favors lower gold prices with the five-week MMA at $1,703.9. The monthly chart is neutral with the five-month MMA at $1,687.3. I do not expect a new all-time high in 2013 versus the 2011 high at $1,923.7. The low end of the trading range should be the 2011 low at $1,523.9.
Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil ($91.13): The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at $88.08 and the 200-week Simple Moving Average at $84.50. The 200-week has been a magnet since mid-2009. The monthly chart has been negative since September with the 120-month SMA at $70.51 and the five-month MMA at $91.56. The 2013 trading range should be within the 2012 range of $77.28 to $110.55 which was within the 2011 range of $74.95 to $114.83, well below the July 2008 all-time high at $147.27.
Analysis of the Euro vs. the Dollar (1.3241): The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 1.2991 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3523. The monthly chart is positive with the 120-month SMA at 1.3149 and the five-month MMA at 1.2920. There is a three year trading range between the June 2010 low at 1.1880 and the May 2011 high at 1.4941.Analysis of the Dow Industrial Average (13,096.31): The weekly chart shifts to neutral from positive with a close today below the five-week MMA at 13,106 with downside risk to the 200-week SMA at 11,253. The monthly chart shifts to negative from positive but overbought with a close on Monday below the five-month MMA at 12,973. The downside risk is to the 120-month SMA at 11,034. I do not expect the Dow to return to its October 2007 high at 14,198.10 in 2013, which limits the upside potential. Analysis of the S&P 500 (1418.10): The weekly chart shifts to neutral from positive with a close today below the five-week MMA at 1415.1 with downside risk to the 200-week SMA at 1198.9. The monthly chart stays positive but overbought with a close on Monday above the five-month MMA at 1387.8. The downside risk is to the 120-month SMA at 1206.6. I do not expect the S&P to return to its October 2007 high at 1576.09 in 2013, which limits the upside potential.
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