For some owners, that information will help them decide whether they will buy insurance, or whether they'll decide it's cheaper to not provide coverage and just pay the government a $2,000-per-employee fine. For those who have close to 50 workers, they may decide to not hire more workers in order to remain outside the law's jurisdiction.
Don't look for the small business lending climate to get easier in 2013. Owners who are uneasy about the economy, taxes and health care aren't expected to significantly increase their borrowing, especially as many have been paying down debt since the recession. But even those who are ready to borrow are expected to find it's still hard to get a loan. Bankers are unlikely to be more liberal in their lending policies.
Depressed lending levels may be with us well beyond 2013, says James Schrager, a professor of entrepreneurship at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
The problem isn't just that banks are cautious about small business loans. Schrager notes that home equity loans, a traditional source of money for people starting or expanding a business, remain difficult to get, the result of the collapse in the mortgage market in 2008.
Small Business Majority's Arensmeyer is hopeful that a bill introduced in Congress this year to allow credit unions to make more loans to small businesses will get more traction when the new Congress convenes. That bill would more than double the amount of total assets that credit unions can use to lend to small businesses to 27.5 percent.
But he's also not expecting major changes in lending next year.
"Sadly, I don't think we're going to increase our access to capital overnight," he says.
A trend that's expected to gain speed in 2013 is what's calling onshoring. That's the term for manufacturing that had been done overseas, and that's now taking place back in U.S. factories. Apple Inc. earlier this month said it would move production of some of its Mac computers to the U.S. from China next year â¿¿ but many small businesses have already been making the switch. While Apple is an example of a big company moving in this direction, the majority of U.S. manufacturers are small businesses.