NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The past several years, I've been asked to write a year-end column that attempts to predict some of what will happen in the ensuing year. I've delivered these columns reluctantly as I have never been a fan of trying to prognosticate the future.
This year, no one asked, but I'm delivering it anyway. Take it all with a grain of salt. If it's anything close to past years, one-third of these calls will come true, one-third will be miserably wrong, and one-third will be half right and half wrong.
1. The "Fiscal Cliff" will be a nonevent in the short term. Painfully, this has been nearly every pundit's focus over the past several months; no deal has been done yet, and there are just days left in 2012.
Although there's still a possibility of some type of agreement being reached before we ring in 2013, even if we "go over the cliff," the effects will be short-term. The world will not end, and the Dow won't go to 5000.There may be some volatility, but this will end up being a more modern version of Y2K. I do have longer-term fears, however, because I believe that the proverbial can will be kicked down the road yet again on entitlement reform and spending cuts. Most everyone fears the molehill (fiscal cliff); I fear the mountain (unsustainable spending and debt).
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