The survey examined three scenarios: Reducing the maximum MID-eligible mortgage amount to $500,000 and eliminating the allowance for second homes; capping all itemized deductions, including the MID, at $25,000 per year; and eliminating the MID over a multi-year period.
There was only one instance in which a majority of respondents indicated prices would not be negatively affected – 55 percent of respondents said the first scenario outlined above would have little to no near-term impact on overall home prices. Eliminating the MID entirely over a period of several years was expected to have the biggest negative impact on high-end home prices over the long-term, with 70 percent of respondents saying they expected such prices to fall moderately or significantly under such a scenario.
"If adopted, any measure to limit or repeal the MID will result in distinct price impacts over time and by market segment, and our survey data are consistent with this view," said Pulsenomics Founder Terry Loebs. "For example, in the event that the maximum MID-eligible mortgage amount is reduced from $1 million to $500,000 and the deduction allowance for second homes is eliminated – an ingredient of the Simpson-Bowles proposal – the majority of respondents expect high-end home prices to fall while U.S. home prices overall experience little or no price impact."
Additional details regarding this portion of the survey are available at www.pulsenomics.com.This is the 15th edition of the Home Price Expectations Survey. It was conducted from Nov. 30, 2012 through Dec. 12, 2012 by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. For full survey results and graphics, please visit Zillow Real Estate Research at www.zillow.com/blog/research, or www.pulsenomics.com. About Zillow:Zillow (NASDAQ: Z) is the leading real estate information marketplace, providing vital information about homes, real estate listings and mortgages through its website and mobile applications, enabling homeowners, buyers, sellers and renters to connect with real estate and mortgage professionals best suited to meet their needs. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 350 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow, Inc. operates Zillow.com®, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, Zillow Rentals, Zillow Mobile, Postlets®, Diverse Solutions®, Buyfolio™, Mortech™ and HotPads™. The company is headquartered in Seattle. Zillow.com, Zillow, Postlets and Diverse Solutions are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc. Buyfolio, Mortech and HotPads are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.