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TheStreet Open House

Economists Expect 2012 Housing Momentum To Carry Into 2013

Stocks in this article: Z

SEATTLE, Dec. 26, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- A nationwide panel of more than 100 professional forecasters expects home prices to rise 3.1 percent in 2013 after finishing 2012 up more than 4.6 percent, reflecting growing optimism in the housing market, according to the December 2012 Zillow® Home Price Expectations Survey.

The survey of 105 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists was sponsored by leading real estate information marketplace Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) and conducted by Pulsenomics LLC. It is based on the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller® U.S. National Home Price Index during the coming five years.

Survey respondents said they expect home prices to increase in full-year 2012 by 4.6 percent, up from their more modest forecast of 2.3 percent in the September 2012 survey. Respondents also indicated they expect home prices to rise 3.1 percent in 2013, up from an expectation of 2.4 percent in September, and by more than 3 percent annually through 2017.

"An organic recovery in the housing market really took hold in the latter half of 2012, and this improvement is echoed in some of the most optimistic price projections we've seen in years from this group," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "Record levels of affordability and an improving overall economic picture have really helped buoy the market and have us well positioned for continued growth, albeit slightly slower, in 2013 and beyond."

The most optimistic i quartile of panelists predicts a 6.3 percent increase in 2012, on average, while the most pessimistic ii predicts an average increase of 3 percent. For 2013, price change projections range from 4.9 percent among the most optimistic quartile to 0.8 percent among the most pessimistic, on average.

Mortgage Interest Deduction Would Negatively Impact High-End Home Prices

Changes to the mortgage interest deduction (MID) may be a key element of a fiscal cliff "grand bargain," so the panel was asked to gauge how certain proposed MID changes would impact home prices in both the near and long term.

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