The new embedded form factor also raises diverse technical and legal questions, with security and ownership rights issues being among them. Depending on how these issues will be tackled, there will be different operating modes of eUICC ecosystem with new roles and new players to gamble their material wellbeing on the matter.
Undoubtedly, controversy on new business models that will rely on eUICC hurdles straightforward standardization and implementation of the technology. Taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of major players, Smart Insights has defined four scenarios that the industry may undergo. The probability of each scenario described in the report depends on key business advantages that each stakeholder anticipates from the eUICC adoption. In addition, the same stakeholders, fearing the shift of power coming with the eUICC adoption, may be tempted to build upon their current situation to hinder the implementation of the technology.
MNOs are believed to resist the transition from removable SIM to an embedded module, which eventually may negatively impact their core business. However, our field research found that some MNOs do believe in business opportunities that come with eUICC adoption and thus come out for its implementation. Handset makers alike other third parties are also expected to take advantage of the eUICC opportunity.
Nonetheless, Smart Insights forecasts that adjusted removable SIM card shipments will continue to grow at a CAGR of 6%-12% depending on different eUICC adoption scenarios analyzed in the report. The wide adoption of eUICC is not foreseen in the scope of the covered period, but rather in the long-term future. The report provides forecasts on eUICC shipments and adjusted removable SIM card shipments in volume.The analysis was conducted based on primary and secondary research, the technical and business expertise of semiconductor and SIM card manufacturers, mobile network operators and handset makers, as well as industry associations and standardization bodies that were interviewed anonymously for the purpose of this report.