Now I am reading that this failure of Boehner's Plan B is the equivalent of both. You can almost take an average of the two and arrive at what we are supposed to be done, call it 12%. And yes, those are precisely the numbers I am being told we will fall.
Now there are several things at work here. First, I don't know anyone who really thought the GOP would ever vote for a tax increase, period. Grover Norquist has made most Republicans sign a pledge. They will, according to Norquist, be challenged in the primary by Tea Party members. The pledge will not be broken.
I have thought, ever since I came back from Washington not that long ago, that it was clear this meant there could be no deal. We had hopes there would be another Grand Bargain driven this time by the president's big win, but these Republicans won regardless of the president. He means nothing to them. Nothing at all.
So, now we go over the cliff. I believe once Americans have seen their truncated paychecks -- both the people who are paid weekly and the ones paid monthly -- talks would begin in earnest to make some sort of deal to cut taxes with the Republicans actually leading that fight, urged on by Norquist. So Boehner's gambit was always a charade.So, why should we sell off big on a charade? The Super Bowl plan is in effect. My take, the odds always favored no deal. We aren't going to get a deal. We fall of the cliff. What gets repealed? The whole 7.5% gain since the November lows? Nah, I think the gain from when there seemed to be a deal last week, call it about 2%-3%. We always overdo it intraday, so it could be more. But the idea that "suddenly" there's no chance of a deal is pretty ludicrous. The GOP will not vote to raise taxes, just to cut them. And I actually expect that to happen because Norquist will urge them to do so.
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