Santa Claus Rally Skids Toward Fiscal Cliff

Analysis of the Dow Transportation Average (5357.81): Transports is approaching the upper end of its 2012 trading range at 5390.11 set on March 19. The 2012 low was 4795.28 set on June 4. The daily chart is overbought and the weekly chart stays positive on a close today above the five-week MMA at 5087.

Analysis of the Russell 2000 (852.49): The small cap index moved above its annual pivot at 836.15 with the QE3 high at 868.50 set on Sept. 14. The daily chart is overbought and the weekly chart stays positive with a close today above the five-week MMA at 815.85.

Analysis of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) (389.49): On Thursday, Dec. 20, I wrote, Six Downgrades Sock Stocks in the SOX as the SOX broke out above its 200-day SMA at 388.59 on Wednesday. The SOX traded back and forth around the 200-day on Thursday and a decline today would be a warning of a false breakout. The QE3 high was 410.82 set on Sept. 14, which is well below the year to date high of 444.96 set on March 27. The weekly chart stays positive on a close today above the five-week MMA at 375.32. The 200-week SMA is a major support at 362.39.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

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This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at [e-mail].

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