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Santa Claus Rally Skids Toward Fiscal Cliff

Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil ($89.88): Crude oil closed above its 50-day SMA at $87.49 on Tuesday, which I cited as a positive when I wrote Drilling for Energy Stocks to Buy . Holding the 50-day SMA indicates potential upside to the 200-day SMA at $92.37. The weekly chart will end this week with a positive profile with a close today above its five-week MMA at $87.86. Weakness over the past six weeks has stayed above the 200-week SMA at $84.28.

Analysis of the Euro vs. the Dollar (1.3240): The euro has been above its 200-day SMA at 1.2784 since Nov. 22 on a daily chart that shows an overbought condition. The weekly chart shifted to positive at the end of last week with the five-week MMA at 1.2942 and the 200-week SMA the upside potential at 1.3520.

Analysis of the Dow Industrial Average (13,311.72): The Dow set a new QE4 reaction high at 13,365.86 on Tuesday well below the QE3 high at 13,661.87 set on Oct. 5. The daily chart shows an overbought condition. The weekly chart stays positive with a close today above the five-week MMA at 13,084. My monthly value level is 12,826 with my annual value level at 12,312.

Analysis of the S&P 500 (1443.69): The S&P 500 set a new QE4 reaction high at 1448.00 on Tuesday with the QE3 high at 1474.51 set on Sept. 14. The weekly chart stays positive with a close today above the five-week MMA at 1411.3. My monthly and annual value levels are 1378.6 and 1363.2.

Analysis of the Nasdaq (3050.39): The Nasdaq set a new QE4 reaction high at 3061.82 on Wednesday with the QE3 high at 3196.93 set on Sept. 21. The weekly chart stays positive with a close today above the five-week MMA at 2982. My monthly and annual value levels are 2893 and 2698.

Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (2693.55): The daily chart still shows what technicians call a "Death Cross" with the 50-day SMA at 2657.55 declining below the 200-day SMA at 2673.75. A close below both moving averages today would be a technical warning. The weekly chart shifts to positive on a weekly close above the five-week MMA at 2653. The Nasdaq 100 is well below its QE3 high at 2878.38, set on Sept. 21.
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